BTRTN: Can the Democrats Flip the Senate in the 2026 Midterms?
Tom focuses on the U.S. Senate in the latest in his ongoing series of articles on the midterms.
Optimism is riding high among Democrats, and why not? Donald Trump, suffering through a miserable November, has seen his approval rating sink to a second-term low of 41% percent, while his disapproval has reached 56% (per the New York Times aggregation). He is a solid net negative on virtually every issue (save crime and Gaza), with terrible ratings on that eternally “most important” issue, the economy (39%/58%) per Real Clear Politics). The Democrats lead in the generic ballot by a whopping 5 points, 46%/41% (per Decision Desk).
If polling doesn’t do it for you, how about actual election results? The Democrats have performed remarkably well in 2025 special elections at the state and federal level, achieving on average a full 15-point swing from Trump’s margin in the contested districts (per Downballot’s tracker). This 2025 electoral run was capped off on Election Day by electrifying wins, by much wider margins than expected, in California (Prop 50), New Jersey (Governor and General Assembly), Pennsylvania (Supreme Court) and Virginia (Governor and House of Delegates).
The good vibes don’t stop there. The Democrats have finally embraced the economy as their core message with a catchword – “affordability” – that they own, thanks to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. This message, also used in New Jersey and Virginia by more centrist Democratic candidates, helped them reclaim voter segments that had moved significantly to Trump in 2024 (young voters, Latino voters, working class voters). And the GOP’s Trump-led gambit into between-census redistricting wars has been neutralized at worst and turned into a stunning victory at best – a GOP backfire that may result in the Democrats ending up with more blue seats than before the machinations began. The odds of the Democrats flipping the House in 2026 have never been higher (albeit pending the outcome of the Louisiana Supreme Court case, though it may be decided too late to affect the 2026 midterms anyway).
The Democrats, of course, still face serious issues: they have no leader, are still wildly unpopular as a party, and are divided in important ways into progressive/centrist camps (see: shutdown). But all in all, they are in a remarkably strong position less than a year from the midterms, strong enough, in fact, to ask whether the Democrats might possibly flip the Senate as well as the House.
Is that possible? You’ve probably read that the Democrats face a “tough map” in the 2026 midterms with respect to the Senate. Indeed, they do. Taking control of the Senate remains a daunting prospect. But as we shall see, it is no longer inconceivable – just hard.
THE SET UP
Currently the GOP holds 53 seats in the Senate to the Democrats’ 47 (including Independents who caucus with the Democrats). This means, of course, that the Democrats must attain a net +4 seats in 2026, thereby achieving a clear majority of 51 seats, to take control of the Senate. The GOP would maintain control if the outcome had the GOP at 50 seats (or more), as they would continue to hold J.D. Vance’s tiebreaking Senate vote with Donald Trump still occupying the White House.
Every two years, roughly a third of the Senate is up for re-election. This year there are 32 seats up for re-election, plus three seats that require special elections: Florida (due to the departure of Marco Rubio to become Secretary of State in 2025), Nebraska (due to the resignation of Ben Sasse in 2023) and Ohio (due to the departure of J.D. Vance for the vice-presidency in 2025).
The starting point for control lies with the incumbents who do not face reelection. There are 34 Democrats and 31 Republicans who will sit it out. But that is where the Democrats’ advantage ends.
The chart clearly shows the challenge for the Democrats. You can add the nine “solid” Democratic-seat races to the 34 not running, getting the Democrats to 43. The first challenge will be to defend all four of their own highly competitive seats. The second challenge will be to flip all three of the GOP highly competitive seats. But even if they manage all that – sweeping all seven difficult races -- that will still only get them to 50 seats. They still must flip one more from the set of four long shot races, all in states that Donald Trump won by double digits just one year ago.
Now, it might be fair to also include long shot potential flips for the GOP, seats Democrats are highly likely to maintain, such as New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia, but Harris won by only +6 points in 2024. But the 2025 Election results overall would seem to put those seats well out of reach for the GOP, as even GOP strategists would concede. The whole point of this analysis is that the Democrats’ 2025 showing has at least the potential to turn more GOP seats into competitive races — not the opposite.
Let’s break down the 11 races to keep an eye on.
HIGHLY COMPETITIVE DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS (4)
The first order of business for the Democrats is to defend successfully the four competitive races involving seats they currently hold – Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. And the bad news is, in the latter three of those states, the incumbent is retiring. The retirements of Gary Peters (Michigan), Tina Smith (Minnesota) and Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) automatically make those seats more vulnerable. Having a popular incumbent running for reelection is the best defense to flipping.
Minnesota. Minnesota has not exactly been a swing state, in that Democrats have won presidential, gubernatorial and Senate elections there for ages, since the hey-days of Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman 15+ years ago. But recent Democratic wins have narrowed to uncomfortable margins; Biden won the state by +7 in 2020, Harris by +4 in 2024, and Senator Tina Smith won by +5 in 2020. Smith’s retirement opens the door for the GOP to flip the seat. Neither party has managed to recruit a big name to head the ticket. The declared Democratic field includes Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and U.S. Rep Angie Craig, while the GOP field is full of outsiders, a former Navy Seal (Adam Schwarze), a retired Navy officer (Tom Weiler) and a former NBA player, Royce White, who lost to Amy Klobuchar last year by 16 points (with Trump on the ballot). There is no polling yet, but the Democratic candidates have outraised the Republicans by a 10:1 ratio. This is the most likely to remain in the blue column in 2026 among this group of four competitive seats.
New Hampshire. New Hampshire has also gone with Biden and Harris in the last two elections, by +7 and +3, and Shaheen won by +16 in 2020. But the Governor Kelly Ayotte is a Republican, and the high-profile GOP Sununu family has had an on-and-off dynastic run in the Granite State: father John (governor from 1983-1989), son John (U.S. Senator from 2003-2009) and son Chris (governor from 2017-2025). Chris Sununu declined to run for the Senate in 2026, but his brother John decided to try to reclaim his former seat. He faces competition from former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who lost a New Hampshire Senate bid to Shaneen in 2014, so the GOP primary holds star power that is lacking in Minnesota. Sununu is leading Brown in the polls. For their part, the Democrats’ leading nominee is U.S Rep. Chris Pappas, who leads Sununu in head-to-head polling by a +4 point margin on average. This state should also stay blue given a continuation of the current environment.
Michigan. Things get tougher in a true swing state. Peters won a second term to the Senate by +2 points in 2020, the same year Joe Biden flipped the state (winning by +3). Trump flipped it back in 2020, winning by +1 point. After Pete Buttigieg (now a Michigan resident) decided to pass on a run to succeed Peters, a tight three-way race has emerged between U.S. representative Haley Stevens, State Senator Mallory McMorrow (a one-time viral video sensation with her 2022 “we will not let hate win” speech) and Wayne County Health Director (and prominent pro-Palestine activist) Abdul El-Sayed. Former U.S. Rep Mike Rogers heads the GOP field; Rogers lost by less than half a point in the 2024 Senate race to current Michigan Senator Elissa Slotnik. Early polling shows a Stevens-Rogers matchup to be very close indeed. This one will keep us up very late on Election Day and may take days to decide.
Georgia. At least in this race Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is running for reelection. Ossoff won his seat in 2020 in a memorable election, as did fellow Georgia Democratic nominee Rafael Warnock, in runoff races that flipped the Senate to the Dems – on January 5, 2020 (yes, the “day before”). This is also the state that Biden famously won by 11,779 votes (0.2%) in 2020, the number (plus one) that Trump sought in his subsequent call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger. Trump won the state by +2 points in 2024. Ossoff caught a major break when popular GOP Governor Brian Kemp, who is terming out, decided not to challenge Ossoff. Instead, Ossoff will be faced by one of the many faceless local politicians who have or will declare their candidacies. Ossoff has built up a formidable war chest for the task, and between that, his incumbency status, the current anti-Trump environment and the fact that Trump will not be on the ballot, he should carry the day – but it may take a runoff again (if no one achieves a majority win on Election Day.)
HIGHLY COMPETITIVE GOP-HELD SEATS (3)
The next task for the Democrats – a considerably more difficult one – will be to flip all three of the most vulnerable GOP seats, in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. The good news for the Democrats is that they have recruited three name-brand candidates for the challenges. Good news, that is, if you are a fan of older, centrist candidates.
Maine. The Democrats once again face the Herculean task of unseating the indominable Susan Collins, who be running for a sixth term. She won going away in 2020, by +9 points, in a race where the polls got it way wrong (they had her behind by five points). She has found trouble in her support of Brett Kavanaugh in his SCOTUS bid, and for backing Trump on numerous issues, but no one dances on the wire better than Collins, who fought for her state successfully in various funding battles with Trump in the past year, something a Democrat could not have done. Her success is confounding in a state Biden won by +9 in 2020 and Harris by +7 in 2024. In the primary, the Democrats will choose between Governor Janet Mills (who is terming out and is 78 years old) and Grant Platner, a controversial, young (41) and populist oyster farmer, harbormaster and Marine veteran who served in Iraq. Platner got himself into trouble with the discovery of wildly offensive comments on Reddit over a decade ago, and a tattoo reminiscent of Nazi imagery. Polling has been all over the place, with Platner well ahead in some polls, but more recent polls show an even race. Platner is narrowly ahead of Collins in head-to-head, whereas Collins is besting Mills by a slim margin. Whew!
North Carolina. The Democrats might have a better chance in North Carolina, where the mainstream GOP Senator Thom Tillis unexpectedly decided not to run for reelection. Former popular Democratic Governor Roy Cooper (age 68) thus has a clear opening to flip the seat. He will have to deal with a reddish-purple electorate who have voted for Trump three times, in 2016 (by +4), in 2020 (+1) and 2024 (+3) and have elected two GOP Senators. The leading candidates to head the GOP ticket are Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair, and author and lawyer Don Brown. Polling has Cooper ahead of both by healthy margins. This is easily the Democrats’ most likely pickup.
Ohio (special election). Ohio’s offers promise to the Democrats as well. The current GOP Senator, Jon Husted, was appointed in 2025 to replace J.D. Vance when Vance became Vice President, thus Husted is a relatively fragile incumbent. The special election is required to ensure an elected representative is in the seat. The Democrats are countering with long-time Senator Sherrod Brown (age 73), who Bernie Moreno defeated in 2024 by +4 points. Ohio has drifted from swing state to red state status over the past decade, with Trump winning the state by +8 in 2020 and +11 in 2024. Polling is sparse thus far, but the most recent polls show pretty much a dead heat between Moreno and Brown.
LONG SHOT DEM FLIPS OF GOP-HELD SEATS (4)
Let’s say the Democrats have run the table thus far – they successfully defend their four competitive seats and manage to flip all three competitive GOP seats. That would be an amazing performance, but it would, as said, still leave them one short of 51 and Senate control. They need to flip one more.
Of the 18 other GOP seats that will be on the 2026 ballot, 14 of them are totally solid red. But the Democrats can at least dream about flipping the other four. Again, it comes down to the context of the stunning 2025 electoral performance of the Democrats. They have proven they can translate their anger to turnout to stunning margins of victory.
Furthermore, midterm turnout skews toward more educated voters, and educated voters, these days, are largely Democrats. On top of that, the GOP will not have Trump on the ballot in 2026 (or ever again) and thus will be less motivated to turn out for their down ballot candidates. And the voter segments that put Trump over the top in 2024 – higher percentages of young voters, working class voters and non-white voters – all appeared to have flipped back to the Democrats in 2025.
With that context, let’s look at the possibilities for a 51st seat.
Iowa. Iowa has not been a swing state since 2004, when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by less than a point in the Hawkeye State. Since then, Obama won handily twice (by +10 and +6) and then Trump won convincingly three straight times (by +9, +8 and +13), without nary a minute of drama in any of those five races. Similarly, longtime Democratic Senator Tom Harkin won his last race by a whopping +25 points in 2008, but Republican Jodi Ernst won her first term in the 2014 red wave by a decisive +8 points (and again in 2020 by +7). But Ernst, like Tillis, surprised many by choosing not to run again in 2026, and therefore left the seat at least a bit vulnerable. While the recent GOP margins cited above seem quite solid, they are far from the massive +20-+40 point margins that you find in red states further west. Given the potential magnitude augured by the 2025 Democratic electoral swings, it may be reasonable to bring Iowa back into the “flappable” conversation. Especially with two wide open races, and no “big names” on either side. U.S. Rep Ashley Hinson is the leading GOP candidates, while there are five declared Democratic candidates and none have ever held a national office.
Texas. Texas is complicated and thus defies a pithy one-paragraph summary, so buckle up. For years, Democrats have been laser-focused on compelling demographic trends that was widely believed to turn Texas from red to purple. But the mass defection of Latino voters to Trump in 2024 poured cold water on those hopes. (As Mike Tyson memorably said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”) But the swing back of Hispanic voters in the 2025 elections has rekindled hope in this theory. Longtime GOP Senator (and establishment leader) John Cornyn is up for reelection in 2026, and many from both parties are challenging him. In his own party, controversial, arch-conservative Attorney General Ken Paxton has the support of Texas’s strong MAGA base (though Trump himself has withheld an endorsement so far). Complicating the GOP race is U.S. Rep Wes Hunt, who entered the race attempting to bridge the establishment and MAGA wings of the party. Polling shows a very close race, and even the aggregators disagree on who is ahead (RCP and Decision Desk averages have Paxton ahead by +3-6 points, whereas 270toWin has Cornyn slightly ahead by +2 points). The rough percentages are 30-35% for each of the two leaders, with Hunt in the 20% range.
The Democratic side features (thus far) a high-profile battle between two declared candidates: former NFL linebacker and U.S. Rep Colin Allred, who lost to Texas’s other Senator, Ted Cruz, by -8 points in 2024, and newcomer James Talarico, a young, telegenic state representative who rose to prominence in the Texas redistricting battle last summer. Well-known U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett may also throw her hat into the ring., and former candidate Beto O’Rourke, who lost to Ted Cruz by just -3 points in 2018, has yet to rule out a run. Four-way polling shows all four are viable candidates, with Crockett out ahead and Allred trailing, but there is a long way to go to settle this.
Polling does confirm one thing, though – the Democrats have a much better chance to beat the far-right wing Paxton than the more mainstream incumbent Cornyn.
Nebraska (special election). The Democrats are backing an independent candidate, Dan Osborn. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because Osborn, a Navy veteran, came reasonably close (-6 points) to defeating Senator Deb Fischer here in 2024. Now Osborn has his sights set on Pete Ricketts, the former GOP governor who was appointed to Ben Sasse’s Senate seat when Sasse resigned in 2023. As in 2024, the Democrats will not offer a candidate, pinning their hopes on Osborn, though Osborn has not indicated with which party he would caucus (if either) if he won.
Kentucky. Kentucky does not really belong on this list unless popular Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, who is terming out, changes his mind and decides to run for the Senate. But Beshear has been adamant so far and that makes sense – he does not need to risk a Senate loss that would dent his presumed presidential aspirations in 2028. The final date to file for the race is January 9, 2026, and if Beshear is not a candidate at that point, we will remove Kentucky from this list.
When you rack it all up, you can see the path to Democratic control of the Senate in 2026 is strewn with obstacles. There is cause for optimism in defending the four blue seats, although Sununu will be a formidable challenger in New Hampshire, and Georgia will likely go to a runoff. Beyond that, one could conceive, given the current environment, the Democrats flipping North Carolina and perhaps even Ohio, but defeating Susan Collins in Maine will be tough. And, even if the Democrats defend their four seats and flip the three more vulnerable GOP seats, they will still have to find a winner from among the long shots. That would be extraordinary, but there is cause for some modicum of hope in Iowa, Texas and Nebraska, if not Kentucky.
But a path exists, and if the political environment continues its current trajectory, one can envision a late night on Election Day before control of the Senate is determined.
Stay tuned.